Bitcoin on the brink

At Tricio we look at charts in order to gauge investor sentiment and behaviour. We last wrote a blog about Bitcoin in early December 2025. Our bottom line was that we were wary of downside risk that was building on the chart, and how demand picked up (or didn’t) on dips would be important to gauge if a dive to much lower levels would follow.

Again, we look at Bitcoin now and then in our client research, discussions and webinars as a speculative commodity. We don’t see BTC as a traditional long-term investment nor as an asset that satisfies traditional emotional needs like precious metals sometimes do. As a speculative commodity (with derivatives available on various exchanges, including the CME) traders can sometimes expect big swings in sentiment now and then which can lead to trend changes. Given how sentiment can swing around in this commodity, despite the HODL (‘hold on for dear life’) investment philosophy that many BTC fans adhere to, prices can swing around sharply. Tests of support, if and when seen, will give clues on how sentiment is developing over the coming months.

The first big test of the downside in this cycle ended in early February 2026 with $60,000 approached. BTC then rebounded to $82,800+ but remained below the 50-week moving average. Now BTC is back to risking tests of $60,000 again. The long-term weekly chart below (13 and 50-week moving average, semi-log) suggests that if the February $60,000 area low is broken then a drop to the lower long-term support line near $11,200 would be at risk. Some demand (buyers stepping up, creating chart support levels) may be seen on approaches to $50,000 (summer pullback 2024) and then the $30,000 area (Q1/Q2 highs 2023). Late 2022 lows near $15,000 would be key below this, just ahead of the rising line near $11,200. 

Bulls will need to see buyers step up soon. If the $60,000 area holds up (for the most part) then we will be back o watching to see if the bounce can regain the 13 and 50-week moving averages. The push to all-time highs above $126,000 in late 2025 is a distant memory. BTC has fallen below half of that level now. BTC fans will need to step up soon or technically the downside risk will gear up. Keep in mind that while the magic of gearing up positions works in one-way bull markets, the ‘deleveraging’ process in a bear slide can be very destructive.

For further information on our research insights and our 'Ask a buddy' service where we help clients manage risk and build resilient portfolios please contact us at info@tricio-advisors.com

Gerry Celaya, Chief Strategist