BTC rising to the occasion – or a rally to sell into?

At Tricio we use charts in order to gauge investor sentiment and behaviour. We occasionally look at Bitcoin as a proxy for other crypto currencies and the sector. While some consider BTC to be a currency, we take the CFTC approach and look at it as a commodity. The long-term chart below (weekly, semi-log with 13 and 50-week moving averages) shows the pullback since the $125,000 area was probed in October 2025, with buyers stepping in at the $60,000 area over the last few weeks before BTC bounced recently. The announcement by US Treasury Secretary Bessent that Treasury would be ramping up their long-dated bond buybacks gave BTC a squeeze higher last week. The announcement this week on sanctions on Iran and those that dealt with Iran gave BTC another pop this Monday.

While the Trump administration has warmed crypto currencies and related products, it is worth keeping in mind that many of the products were designed to avoid government regulation and scrutiny. There have been many reports detailing their use and a recent article describes how Iran uses crypto currencies to help avoid sanctions.

For market practitioners the analysis of BTC’s future trend could boil down to the view that if the US is debasing their currency by some sort of ‘yield curve control’ strategy where Treasury buys long-dated bonds and the Fed refrains from raising short rates while inflation runs hot, then $125,000 and higher here we go. If Iran (and others) continue to successfully use BTC and other crypto products in order to evade US sanctions, then the increased demand could support BTC as well.

For chart watchers, the current probe of the 50-week moving average near $80,250 is worth watching. Sustained gains above this would leave $98,000/$100,000 open next. Breaks above the latter would set up $105,00 for $125,000, then $180,000 and higher on simple extensions for bulls.

Chart support is near $76,000 ahead of the $67,000 zone, then back to the $60,000/$58,000 support area ahead of $49,000 (flat blue line) and then the $30,000 area.

BTC is back in play!

 Gerry Celaya, Chief Strategist