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Economics for Investment Q3 - Wages are key

Our flagship quarterly publication examines current economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). The Focus article this time looks at whether a full US recession is likely or only a 'rolling recession', with growth continuing as different sectors take turns to be weak. We conclude that there is a 70% likelihood of a full US recession starting within the next 9 months. Plus regional analysis covering China, the UK, the Euro zone and Japan. Please contact Tricio if you are interested in receiving a copy.

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Focus - Currency Matters May 2024

Central bank rate moves and interventions are key for FX market direction this year. We look at the money market curves, central bank policies, and reassert our view that the USD will give up ground t

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