Our flagship quarterly publication examines current economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). The Focus article this time looks at whether a full US recession is likely or only a 'rolling recession', with growth continuing as different sectors take turns to be weak. We conclude that there is a 70% likelihood of a full US recession starting within the next 9 months. Plus regional analysis covering China, the UK, the Euro zone and Japan. Please contact Tricio if you are interested in receiving a copy.
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See AllOur investment monthly for December 2023 provides detailed market analysis of equity, bond, commodity, currency, credit and emerging markets. We kept our asset allocation unchanged, but noted the rall
Our round-up of what to expect in the coming week and the key events of last week. The regular Spotlight feature looks at defence companies again. The iShares ITA ETF has made new highs, while in the
Our round-up of what to expect in the coming week and the key events of last week. The regular Spotlight feature looks at Italian bond yields that have been falling - more ahead? Our Review section l
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