Economics for Investment Q4 - Inflation is falling nicely

Our flagship quarterly publication examines current economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). The Focus article this time looks at housing markets. They peaked in 2022 as we expected and European housing markets are still weak, but US house prices have already risen higher, while Australia and Canada are seeing rising prices too. Overall our view is that the US economy is likely to see a soft landing, rather than a recession, because profits are high, housing has already corrected, inventories are not excessive and balance sheets are strong. Please contact Tricio if you are interested in receiving a copy.