Our quarterly publication looks at economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). The Focus article argues that the US inventory cycle is turning and will likely help trigger a US recession soon, which we give a 75% probability now. Plus regional analysis covering the US, UK, China, Euro Zone and Japan. This publication is available for professional investor clients. Contact Tricio if you are interested in receiving a trial copy.