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Economics for Investment - Wage Growth is Key

Our quarterly publication looks at economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading Indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). Our Focus article argues that US CPI inflation could fall to near zero in 2023 (headline) and near 2% (core) if energy and car prices fall back after their big rises this year. This will make the Fed's job judging the inflation outlook hard in 2023. Plus regional analysis covering the US, UK, China, Euro zone and Japan.

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Rate hike expectations are shifting swiftly across the major FX rates as US bank wobbles and fears spread. This is making FX rates jumpy, and further choppy trading looks likely in the near term. Our

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