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Economics for Investment - Wage Growth is Key

Our quarterly publication looks at economic trends and long-term asset allocation themes. We assess the prospects for markets using our SOLVER model (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading Indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks). Our Focus article argues that US CPI inflation could fall to near zero in 2023 (headline) and near 2% (core) if energy and car prices fall back after their big rises this year. This will make the Fed's job judging the inflation outlook hard in 2023. Plus regional analysis covering the US, UK, China, Euro zone and Japan.

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The currency market is at a key juncture. Major central banks may be near their 'peak' rate for this cycle, while the Bank of Japan has kept rates below 0% and is still offering a lot of stimulus to t

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