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EFI Q3 - Rate cuts in play

Our flagship publication, Economics for Investment, is just released to clients. It uses our SOLVER model to assess the economic outlook and draw out investment implications (Stage of the cycle, Outlook, Leading Indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks).

After three years of monetary restraint Western central banks are now looking to ease policy. But, with core inflation still sticky, they will be cautious unless the current US slowdown proves much deeper than expected or, in the Euro zone and UK, if the economic recoveries which began this year falter. We look at how much interest rates can come down over the next year or two and also ask whether the US stock market, or parts of it, are entering a bubble.

The publication includes detailed views on the US, China, Euro zone, UK and Japan. The Focus section compares the performance of the US and UK economies where interest rates and inflation rates have converged very closely but productivity trends are very different. For a complimentary copy of Economics for Investment please email

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