EFI Q4 - Policy uncertainty dominates

Our flagship publication, Economics for Investment is just released to clients. It uses our SOLVER model to assess the economic outlook and draw out investment implications (Stage of the Cycle, Outlook, Leading indicators, Valuations, Expectations and Risks).

Currently, there is much policy uncertainty with the outcome of the US elections a toss-up, concern over how much fiscal stimulus is likely in China, and tough fiscal decisions to be taken in the Euro area and UK. Our Focus section looks at the very different policy platforms of Trump and Harris. Trump's tariff plans will damage the US and world economy, slowing growth and adding to US inflation. Harris's tax plans could also slow US growth. Neither candidate offers any hope of reducing the budget deficit and stemming the rise in government debt.

The publications looks at market valuations and risks and includes detailed views on the US, China, UK, Euro zone and Japan. For a complimentary copy of this edition please email info@tricio-advisors.com