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Focus - Currency Matters January 2023

The USD bull trend is reversing. This is very much the early part of any reversal, but our 'rubber-band' view of major FX rates suggests that a bearish USD trend may build. A Y120 target seems reasonable, but long-term FX hands will remember that yen strengthening risk can build fast, back to Y100? Cable is looking very perky, $1.30 risk is high and the EUR/USD may be able to clear $1.10/$1.12 sooner than thought for $1.20 to follow.

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Central bank rate change divergence is likely to build over the summer. The RBNZ meets o/n and it will be interesting to see if they push rates higher again or pause. The USD is holding steady or gain

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