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Focus - Currency Matters May 2023

Central bank rate change divergence is likely to build over the summer. The RBNZ meets o/n and it will be interesting to see if they push rates higher again or pause. The USD is holding steady or gaining against core currencies at the moment, but a bear trend is expected to reassert itself over the rest of 2023. The JPY remains in focus as EUR/JPY balked at the Y150 probe, but sustained breaks higher would open up Y160/Y170 risk and likely lift USD/JPY back through Y140 for Y150 levels. We lean to a stronger JPY instead, but these are big levels in play.

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Focus - Currency Matters February 2024

Expectations of early central bank rate cuts were reappraised over the last month. We maintain our view that the USD is liable to slip this year. Key levels are in play in USD/JPY, but we expect a Y14

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