Focus - The End of the Housing Cycle

House prices have risen strongly in the last couple of years in the US, Canada, UK, Germany and Australia after over a decade of prior steady gains, taking valuations to high levels. But housing markets are turning as interest rates rise. We argue that, 16-17 years after the last housing market peaks, the cycle is peaking again. House prices will be cushioned by sharply rising wages and rents. But there is easily potential for outright price falls of 15-25% in the US, Canada, Australia and Germany and 10-15% in the UK. How it works out will depend on how high interest rates rise, how long they stay high and whether or not, later in the decade perhaps after a recession, rates return to rock bottom levels again, or whether they remain at higher levels.

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