House prices and the economy

In a new Focus piece we look at the house price cycle in major Western economies and its interaction with the economy. Most countries have seen significant falls in house prices, especially when measured in real terms (after CPI inflation). The US, however is an exception and strength in US housing is supporting the US economy. We argue that the rise in real interest rates since the 2010's points to a structural correction of house prices of 10-15% which is likely not all through yet. That said, if mortgage rates fall as expected and a major recession is avoided, this is more likely to play out as a flat trend for some years, before a renewed upswing begins. To request your complimentary copy please email info@tricio-advisors.com