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Key Trends 2020-23 - Review of Tricio Calls

Just over 3 years since we founded Tricio, we look back at our early asset allocation calls to see how they worked out. We view this exercise both as a critical way to assess our performance and as a reality check. We identified nine major economic and market trends that have dominated investor concern over those years and scored our own calls.

We absolutely nailed four of them - A rapid economic recovery from Covid, a bear market in bonds, China's slowdown and China's weak stock market performance. We did pretty well on two others - we first warned about higher inflation in October 2020 though we didn't expect it to spike so high, and we became bullish on stocks in H2 2020, not right at the Covid bottom but soon afterwards. Two others we missed. We did not foresee such a violent stock market correction in 2022 as stocks had continued to rise during previous episodes of Fed tightening. And we under-estimated how much interest rates would rise in the second half of last year as central banks pivoted to a hawkish stance. For a copy of the report please email us at

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