Q4 Economics for Investment - The great bond re-set

We have just published our flagship quarterly for Q4, looking at the outlook for economies and markets. It covers the US, China, UK, Euro zone and Japan and is available to clients. For a complimentary sample copy please email info@tricio-advisors.com

We focus on the rise in bond yields in recent months and argue that, in the US, it reflects the strength of the economy, combined with hefty issuance from the government and from hyper-scalars. Bond yields have risen elsewhere too, partly due to the usual correlation with US Treasuries but also because countries like the UK and France have large deficits to finance. Overall, the economic and market outlook continues to depend on bringing inflation a little lower to meet targets and on AI, the key driver of the strength in the US economy. Longer run, we are optimistic that AI will boost productivity in the economy but sceptical that it will provide sufficient profits for tech companies to justify the extraordinary scale of investment spending.